Ngaba wakha waphawula ukuba iziganeko zibonakala ziqikeleleke emva kokuba sele zenzeke? Iziphumo zonyulo, umzekelo, zibonakala zibonakala zicacile emva kokuba iitalente zibalwe. Bathi ukujonga ingqalelo kwi-20/20. Ngamanye amazwi, izinto zihlala zibonakala zicacile kwaye ziqikelelwa emva kokuba zenzekile. Kwiengqondo , oku kuthethwa ngokuba yi-bia ye-hindsight kwaye ingaba nefuthe elikhulu kwiingcinga zakho kuphela kodwa nakwizinto oziphetheyo.
Masiqwalasele ngokuthe ngqo indlela i-bias hindsight-workback isebenza ngayo kwaye ingaba inokuchaphazela njani ezinye iinkolelo ozibambayo kunye nezigqibo ozenzayo ngosuku nosuku.
Yiyiphi Eyona Impawu Yengqondo?
Ixesha elijongene neengcamango zengqondo zibhekisela ekuthambekeni kwabantu kufuneka bajonge imimangaliso njengento eqikelelweyo kunokuba ikhona. Ngaphambi kokuba isiganeko senzeke, ngelixa usenokukwazi ukunikela ngokuqikelela malunga nesiphumo, akukho nhlobo indlela yokukwazi ngokwenene oko kuza kwenzeka.
Emva kwesiganeko, abantu baninzi bakholelwa ukuba bayazi iziphumo zesiganeko ngaphambi kokuba kwenzeke oko. Yingakho kudla ngokuba kuthiwa "ndayazi yonke into". Emva kokuba iqela lakho elikuthandayo lilahlekelwe yi-Superbowl, unokuziva unyaniseke ukuba uyazi ukuba baya kulahleka (nangona ungeva ngale ndlela ngaphambi komdlalo.)
Le nto ibonakaliswe kwiimeko ezininzi ezahlukeneyo, kubandakanya ezopolitiko kunye nemicimbi yezemidlalo.
Kwizilingo, abantu bahlala bekhumbula izibikezelo zabo ngaphambi kokuba umcimbi ube namandla ngakumbi kunokuba babenjalo.
U mzekelo
Ngokomzekelo, abaphandi uMartin Bolt noJohn Brink (1991) bacela abafundi beekholeji ukuba baxelele indlela iSanate yase-US eya kuvota ngayo ukuqinisekiswa kweNkundla ePhakamileyo yeCandelo uClarence Thomas.
Ngaphambi kwevoti yeSenate, iipesenti ezingama-58 zabathathi-nxaxheba baqikelele ukuba uya kuqinisekiswa. Xa abafundi bephinda baphinde baphinda emva kokuba uTomas uqinisekiswe, iipesenti ezingama-78 zabathathi-nxaxheba bathi bacinga ukuba uTomas uya kuvunywa.
Ukuxhamla ngokukhawuleza kudla ngokuba kuthiwa "Ndiyazi-konke-kunye kunye." Kubandakanya ukuthambekela kwabantu kufuneka bacinge ukuba bayazi iziphumo zesiganeko emva kokuba isiphumo sele senziwe. Ngokomzekelo, emva kokuya kumdlalo webhola, ungase ugxininise ukuba uyazi ukuba iqela eliphumeleleyo liya kuphumelela kwangaphambili.
Abafundi besikolo samabanga aphakamileyo nabafundi beekholeji bafumana amaxesha angenangqondo ngexesha lokufunda kwabo. Njengoko befunda iitekisi zabo zekhosi, ulwazi lunokubonakala lubulula. "Kakade," abafundi bahlala becinga emva kokufunda iziphumo zophando okanye ukuvavanya. "Ndazi ukuba yonke imihla."
Oku kungaba ngumkhuba oyingozi kubafundi ukuba bangene kuwo, nangona kunjalo, ngokukodwa xa ixesha lokuvavanya lisondela. Ngokucinga ukuba sele beyayazi ulwazi, banokuthi bahluleke ukufundisisa ngokwaneleyo iimveliso zokuvavanya.
Xa kuziwa kwixesha lokuvavanya, nangona kunjalo, ubukho beempendulo ezahlukeneyo kwiimvavanyo ezikhethiweyo ezininzi kunokukwenza abafundi abaninzi baqonde ukuba bebengayazi kakuhle izinto ezifana nokucinga kwabo.
Ngokuqaphela le ngxaki inokwenzeka, nangona kunjalo, abafundi bangakwazi ukuhlakulela imikhuba emihle yokufunda ukuze banqobe umkhwa wokucinga ukuba 'bayazi-konke-kunye.'
Iinkcazo
Ngoko ke yintoni eyenza ukuba le nto yenzeke?
Abaphandi bacetyisa ukuba ezintathu zintlukwano eziphambili zisebenzisana negalelo kulo mkhuba wokubona izinto ezinokuqikelelwa ngaphezu kwazo.
- Okokuqala, abantu bavame ukuphazamisa okanye baze bazilahlekise iziganeko zabo zangaphambili malunga nesiganeko. Njengoko sijonge emva kweziganeko zethu zangaphambili, sivame ukukholelwa ukuba sasiyazi kakuhle impendulo yonke.
- Okwesibini, abantu banomdla wokujonga imimangaliso ngokungenakugweba. Xa sivavanya into eyenzekayo, sivame ukucinga ukuba yinto ephosakele ukuba ivele.
- Ekugqibeleni, abantu banomdla wokucinga ukuba bebenokuzibonela phambili iziganeko ezithile.
Xa zonke izinto ezi zintathu zenzeka ngokukhawuleza kwimeko, ukunyaniseka kwento ebonakalayo yenzeke. Xa ibhayisikobho ifinyelela ekupheleni kwayo kwaye sifumanisa ukuba ngubani lo mbulali, sinokubukela kwimemori yethu yefilimu kwaye siyilawule imbonakalo yethu yokuqala yalomntu onetyala. Singajonga kwakhona kuzo zonke iimeko kunye nabalinganiswa besibini kwaye sikholwe ukuba kunikwe ezi ziguquko, kwacaca ukuba kuya kwenzeka ntoni. Unokuhamba kude nefilimu ukucinga ukuba uyayazi yonke loo nto, kodwa inyaniso kukuba awuzange uyenze.
Enye ingxaki enokwenzeka ngale ndlela yokucinga kukuba kunokukhokelela ekukholweni. Ukuba sikholelwa ngokuphosakeleyo ukuba siya kuphumelela, sinokuba nethemba kwaye sinokuthi sithathe ingozi engadingekile. Ubungozi obunokuba lube yimali, njengokubeka iqanda lakho elikhulu kwiqanda le-stock portfolio. Basenokuba neengqondo, ezifana nokutshala imali eninzi kakhulu ebuhlotsheni obubi.
Ngaba kukho nantoni na ongayenza ukulwa nokukhawuleza?
Abaphandi Roes and Vohs bathetha ukuba enye indlela yokulwa nale nto ifuna ukucinga ngezinto ezinokwenzeka ukuba zenzeke kodwa azizange zenzeke. Ngokuphonononga ngengqondo kwiziphumo ezinokwenzeka, abantu banokufumana umbono olinganiselayo malunga noko kwenzeka ngokwenene.
> Imithombo:
> Myers, David G. Psychology social (8 ed.). Imfundo ye-McGraw-Hill; 2005.
> Roes, NJ, & Vohs, KD Hindsight bias. Iimpembelelo kwiSayensi zeNzululwazi. 2012; 7 (5): 10.1177 / 1745691612454303.